Monday, May 21, 2007

CRUNCH TIME

I saw this story linked at The Drudge Report:
Iran's secret plan for summer offensive to force US out of Iraq

Iran is secretly forging ties with al-Qaida elements and Sunni Arab militias in Iraq in preparation for a summer showdown with coalition forces intended to tip a wavering US Congress into voting for full military withdrawal, US officials say.
"Iran is fighting a proxy war in Iraq and it's a very dangerous course for them to be following. They are already committing daily acts of war against US and British forces," a senior US official in Baghdad warned. "They [Iran] are behind a lot of high-profile attacks meant to undermine US will and British will, such as the rocket attacks on Basra palace and the Green Zone [in Baghdad]. The attacks are directed by the Revolutionary Guard who are connected right to the top [of the Iranian government]."

The official said US commanders were bracing for a nationwide, Iranian-orchestrated summer offensive, linking al-Qaida and Sunni insurgents to Tehran's Shia militia allies, that Iran hoped would trigger a political mutiny in Washington and a US retreat. "We expect that al-Qaida and Iran will both attempt to increase the propaganda and increase the violence prior to Petraeus's report in September [when the US commander General David Petraeus will report to Congress on President George Bush's controversial, six-month security "surge" of 30,000 troop reinforcements]," the official said.

Not a pleasant prospect, eh? But that's not the really scary part. Check this out:
But if Iran succeeded in "prematurely" driving US and British forces out of Iraq, the likely result would be a "colossal humanitarian disaster" and possible regional war drawing in the Sunni Arab Gulf states, Syria and Turkey, he said.

(emphasis mine)

That regional war is the sticking point here. In spite of what we are constantly being told, this is not Vietnam. When we pulled out of Vietnam, millions died. But for all the tragedy, we just sat here fat, dumb, and stupid, protected by our precious oceans from the carnage that resulted from our failure there.

If we run from Iraq, we won't be as lucky. Iraq sits in the middle of oil central. It ranks second to Saudi Arabia in known oil reserves. Saudi Arabia, of course, is right next door. A regional war would threaten the oil supply of the industrialized world. You think $3 (or more) a gallon for gas is a lot? Just wait till the entire Persian Gulf erupts into chaos. That $3 a gallon price tag will seem like a pleasant memory. We can blather on all day long about "fuel conservation" and "alternative energy," but oil is the lifeblood of the global economy. Regardless of what we do, this will remain true for at least the next two decades.

The bottom line is this: WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH IRAQ SOONER OR LATER. THE LONGER WE WAIT, THE HARDER IT WILL BE. We failed to back the 1991 uprising, and now we're paying the price for kicking that can down the road. What will it cost us to stop a regional conflagration a few years from now? Just like with gasoline, the price we're paying today will seem like a pleasant memory.

We have a job to do in Iraq. It isn't easy, and it only promises to get harder if we put off doing it. It's time we stop listening to the wishful-thinkers and the political snake oil salesman, and get the job done.

Tuesday, May 15, 2007

PERCEPTION IS REALITY

The American public is unhappy with the way the war in Iraq is going. We know this becuase the news media reports it ad nauseum. On any given day you'll see headlines like these:

Alabama poll: War not worth lost lives

Northwest Arkansas Poll Shows Opposition to War

Poll: Most Minnesotans oppose Bush troop surge

So why are so many people so unhappy with the conduct of the war? Because it's going badly. And how do they know this? Because the news media tells them so, of course.

Imagine for a moment that all you know about the war you learned from the mainstream media. Broadcast news and your local newspaper. No FOX News. No talk radio. No blogs. Just the old-school media. Here's what you'd know about the war:
The US has over 100,000 troops in Iraq. They're all young, uneducated, and poor. They live in spartan conditions on various bases throughout the country. They spend their days driving around Iraq in vehicles. Periodically, some of them are injured or killed by roadside bombs. Occasionally, they get so frustrated that they kill civilians, commit rape, and abuse innocent detainees.

That about sums it up. Note the items that are missing from the picture: no reports of the terrorists detained(apparently, all of the "abused" detainees are just innocent Iraqis being held for no reason), of weapons caches found, or of the heroics of our warriors.

Oh sure, they'll report on successes... if they're big enough; like the death of Zarqawi or the capture of Saddam. Of course, such reports are usually accompanied by analysis telling us (the ignorant masses) why it doesn't really matter. Even FOX News--which is supposedly a propaganda machine for the Bush administration--seldom reports on the day-to-day successes in the war.

In order to find stories like these, you have to go to places like the Multi-National Force - Iraq website. There you will not only find stories of success, you'll also get the bad news as well:

MNC-I Airmen Attacked

Roadside bomb strikes MND-B patrol

Search for missing Soldiers continues

It's sadly ironic that a military PR website--an unabashedly biased source--will give you a more balanced view of what's going on in Iraq than the "legitimate" media. Free press? More like bought and paid for.

Tuesday, May 08, 2007

FIDDLING WHILE ROME BURNS

The world is going to hell in a handbasket, and we're preoccupied with inane bullshit.  Which brings us to today's must-read.  Victor Davis Hanson examines this phenomenon in his latest column at Frontpage Mag.

Thursday, May 03, 2007

GWOT ROUNDUP-MAY 2, 2007

IRAQ

Two suspected secret cell terrorists detained

Thursday, 03 May 2007

BAGHDAD, Iraq – Coalition Forces detained two suspected terrorists Thursday morning during raids in Sadr City.

The individuals targeted during the raid are suspected members of a secret cell terrorist network known for facilitating the transport of weapons and explosively formed penetrators, or EFPs, from Iran to Iraq, as well as bringing militants from Iraq to Iran for terrorist training.

11 Suspected terrorists detained

May 3, 2007

BAGHDAD, Iraq – Coalition Forces detained 11 suspected terrorists late Wednesday and early Thursday during raids targeting a foreign fighter facilitation network and improvised explosive device networks.

Wednesday afternoon, Coalition Forces raided four buildings in Mosul as part of two related operations.  When Coalition Forces searched the buildings, they detained three suspected terrorists that intelligence sources link to arms trafficking, a vehicle-borne IED network and attacks against Iraqi and Coalition Forces.

AFGHANISTAN

Suicide Bombings Backfire on Taliban, U.S. Officer Says

Apr 26, 2007

WASHINGTON (American Forces Press Service, April 24, 2007) - Recent suicide-bombing attacks against innocent Afghans indicate a changed Taliban strategy that is backfiring on the radical Islamic group, a senior U.S. military officer in Afghanistan told Pentagon reporters today.

SUSPECTED IED CELL MEMBERS DETAINED IN KHOWST

5/3/2007

BAGRAM AIRFIELD, Afghanistan – Afghan and Coalition forces detained two adult males after a raid on a compound in the Mandozai district of the Khowst Province early this morning.

Credible evidence led the forces to the detainees, who are suspected operatives in the Haqqani network, responsible for facilitating IED attacks on peaceful Afghans and Coalition forces in the Khowst Province.

OTHER

Air Force stands up first unmanned aircraft systems wing

5/3/2007 - NELLIS AIR FORCE BASE, Nev. (AFNEWS) -- The Air Force's first unmanned aircraft systems wing stood up May 1 at Creech Air Force Base, Nev.

As Col. Christopher Chambliss assumed command of the 432nd, a piece of history was revived and a course for the way ahead continued.

Wednesday, May 02, 2007

BAD NEWS FOR MILBLOGGERS

In a week filled with bad news, this is the worst thing I've heard so far.  Via Blackfive:

Army Squeezes Soldier Blogs, Maybe to Death

The U.S. Army has ordered soldiers to stop posting to blogs or sending personal e-mail messages, without first clearing the content with a superior officer, Wired News has learned. The directive, issued April 19, is the sharpest restriction on troops' online activities since the start of the Iraq war. And it could mean the end of military blogs, observers say.

Military officials have been wrestling for years with how to handle troops who publish blogs. Officers have weighed the need for wartime discretion against the opportunities for the public to personally connect with some of the most effective advocates for the operations in Afghanistan and Iraq -- the troops themselves. The secret-keepers have generally won the argument, and the once-permissive atmosphere has slowly grown more tightly regulated. Soldier-bloggers have dropped offline as a result.

Just when I thought things couldn't be worse in the PR arena for the war effort, they get worse.  I understand the Army's concerns.  OPSEC is essential to victory.  But so is public relations.  We can't win this war if the public, and the world, hear nothing but the bad news.  We can't count on the political activists who pass themselves off as journalists to get the word out.  And now the Army is about to close the door on the best source of information on what's really happeneing on the battlefield.

VIDEO--STRIKING A CHLORINE BOMB TRUCK IN IRAQ

This video is from April 5, 2007, and was shot near Fallujah, Iraq. A USMC F/A-18 Hornet takes out a dump truck loaded with chlorine tanks meant to be used as a VBIED.


h/t: MNF-Iraq

Tuesday, May 01, 2007

NEWS FROM THE GWoT

CENTCOM

April 29 airpower summary: Maintainers keep planes flying

Afghanistan

Operation Achilles update – ISAF troops continue to progress into Sangin Valley

KANDAHAR, Afghanistan (30 April) – Multinational International Security Assistance Force and Afghan National Security Forces taking part in Operation Achilles have continued their advance into the lower Sangin Valley. This action is the latest in a series of sub-operations under Operation Achilles and commenced in the early hours of Monday in the area around Gereshk in the east of Helmand province.

The operation is still ongoing, but it has already successfully destroyed several positions used by the Taliban extremists to launch harassing attacks and is meant to stabilize the ongoing reconstruction and development in Helmand province. 

Iraq

72 SUSPECTED TERRORISTS DETAINED

4/30/2007

BAGHDAD, Iraq - Coalition Forces captured 72 suspected terrorists and discovered bomb-making materials Sunday during a constellation of overnight raids targeting the al-Qaeda in Iraq network.
 
In a massive synchronized effort, Coalition Forces descended on targets in Anbar and Salah ad Din provinces to disrupt the al-Qaeda network.

Operations in Samarra alone uncovered 36 individuals with alleged ties to al-Qaeda terrorists.

5 TERRORISTS KILLED, 20 SUSPECTED TERRORISTS DETAINED

5/1/2007

BAGHDAD, Iraq - Coalition forces killed five terrorists and detained 20 suspected terrorists Tuesday during overnight raids targeting senior leaders within the al-Qaeda in Iraq network.

Intelligence reports led Coalition forces to targets associated with senior al-Qaeda leaders west of Taji Tuesday morning.  During an operation there, terrorists engaged ground forces with small arms fire.

Coalition forces used appropriate self-defense measures and engaged the armed men, killing five.  Six suspected terrorists were detained.

Coalition forces found weapons and grenades, which they destroyed on site.

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